Deborah Mayo (Virginia Tech)
4:30-6:30pm (ET), Wednesday, March 10
Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How it (Still) Gets You Beyond the Statistics Wars
Abstract: High-profile failures of replication in the social and biological sciences underwrites a minimal requirement of evidence: If little or nothing has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. A claim is severely tested to the extent it has been subjected to and passes a test that probably would have found flaws, were they present. Many methods being advocated to reform statistical practice, I argue, do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are even in tension with successful strategies to improve replication. The minimal severe-testing requirement leads to reformulating statistical significance tests (and related methods) to avoid familiar criticisms and abuses. Viewing statistical inference as severe testing–whether or not you accept it–(still) offers a key to understand and get beyond today’s statistics wars.
Carlo Rovelli (Aix-Marseille University)
4:30-6:30pm (ET), Tuesday, April 13
Title: The old fisherman mistake: the complex physical structures underpinning agency and free will
Abstract: The real processes that are commonly denoted “agency” and “free will” are natural phenomena. They can be accounted for in terms of current physics, but not in a straightforward manner. They depend on several interconnected layers of approximations, structures and contingent facts, that are not easily disentangled. Resolving them in this manner dissipates the apparent tension between their nature and current physics, unless we make the old fisherman mistake.
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